An analysis of the scientific predictions

in Ernest Mansfield’s  first novel  Astria - the Ice Maiden

Ernest Mansfield made several interesting scientific predictions in his 1910 novel Astria - the Ice Maiden, however his name has not been found in any analysis of past SF works1-4. This may reflect that he never achieved fame as an author with just two published books, or that at the time his first book was not recognised as a work of Science Fiction(Si-Fi). Now an attempt has been made to analyse the significant of his predictions and a summary is presented here.

 

During the period from 1850 to 1930 literary works with a science fiction content were known as scientific romances, with the most famous and prolific authors in that period being Jules Verne5 and H. G. Wells6. These authors are sometimes referred to as “the fathers of science fiction". Many scientific romances during this period have also grouped under the heading of Utopia gendre, being largely based on fictitious, futuristic and idealised worlds. Astria - the Ice Maiden is clearly in this style.  However, the period well after Mansfield’s death from the 1940s to the 1950's is now considered to be thegolden age of science fiction”3.

 

Today’s SF literature1,3 that analyses earlier Si-Fi predictions identifies two factors that could be relevant to an assessment of Ernest’s book:  Firstly, it is said that some early predictions are written in such a cryptic language that it makes them so vague and imprecise that a broad spread optimistic and sensational interpretations can be placed on them. However, Ernest’s predictions and descriptions do not appear to fall into this category. Secondly, it is much quoted in recent Si-Fi literature that as the many writers in the past have made thousands of predictions, then statistically at least a few will have turned out to be have been accurate. This hypothesis however, is also not relevant to the assessment of a handful of predictions made by one author.

 

Mansfield’s predictions are quite diverse and the merit of them has to assessed by considering each individually with an assessment of earlier Si-Fi literature, the state of research and technology both in 1910 and at the present time. Only then can accepted Si-Fi classifications can be assigned to each, namely:

earlier research/technology identified,    earlier similar predictions,    successful prediction,    unfulfilled prediction.

 

There are ten notable predictions in the book worthy of investigation…

( the book can be studied on a separate webpage/tab at... ASTRIA - The Ice Maiden )

 

prediction:

A life expectancy of 1400 years

page 45

quote:

(from the book)

our physicians thought the course of countless centuries improved things so greatly that the average age is now 1400 years…“it is our custom to live 50 years and then repose for 50 years”.

investigation:

Today’s most optimistic prophecies refer to only a couple of hundred years.

conclusion:

An unfulfilled prediction  that likely to remain that way

prediction:

People and materials travelling by telegraphy

page 57

quote:

“By what method do they travel? …telegraph…the final development of this method in your world will be the transportation of material…you have everything to hand to bring this about, but you have not developed the method to utilise it”.

investigation:

An earlier similar prediction has been identified in “The Man Without a Body”, by Edward Page Mitchell, published in 1877 6.

conclusion:

earlier similar prediction

prediction:

Radium as a major source of fuel

page 58

quote:

“The centre of the earth is a mass of molten radium like the sun itself…we use it throughout our realm as a fuel. It is the illuminant of our streets, parks and palaces”

investigation:

The radioactive properties of radium were discovered just before the book was written but then it was only known then that minute amounts of energy are released naturally. Radium and uranium are similar heavy radioactive elements and were originally were discovered and identified as one element called “pitchblende” in 1896 before Madam Curie separated them in 1898. Ernest Rutherford first split the atom in 1917 to discover the large amounts of energy potentially available and the first fission nuclear reactor was built in 1934.  No similar earlier predictions has been identified.

conclusion:

Although the centre of the earth is clearly not all radium it would otherwise seem to be a successful prediction.

prediction:

Ice used as a major source of fuel

page 61

quote:

“Fire in the land of Ice?…Everything in your world has come from fire and ice…in the course of time the ice enveloped the globe of fire and formed a shell to confine the molten mass…Water is a fuel”

investigation:

Today tritium is extracted from water and ice and is the fuel used in nuclear fusion research reactors. The existence of tritium was first identified in the 1920s, and then produced by Ernest Rutherford in 1934. Fusion reactors have been under development around the world since the 1960s, but are still not in commercial use, but they almost certainly will be in the future, producing huge amounts of electricity with very little pollution. The machines used to produce large quantities of tritium from water are known as Ice Condensers. No similar earlier predictions have been identified.

conclusion:

This would appear to be a successful prediction

prediction:

Global Warming

page 66

quote:

“Every glazier in the world today is a decaying force! …Were it not for ice, your air would became clogged… Ice is king of nature and the guardian of the world”…What is that feeble falling of snow down the valley - or for that matter the combined avalanches of the earth - compared with the great displacement that takes place every day in our realm!”

investigation:

Although very little appears to have been written about global warming before 1910, one well established piece of research has been found…

Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) was a Swedish scientist that was the first to claim in 1896 that fossil fuel combustion may eventually result in enhanced global warming. He proposed a relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature. He found that the average surface temperature of the earth is about 15oC because of the infrared absorption capacity of water vapor and carbon dioxide. This is called the natural greenhouse effect. Arrhenius suggested a doubling of the CO2 concentration would lead to a 5oC temperature rise 9.

conclusion:

Earlier research  identified

prediction:

A proposed solution to global warming

page 68

quote:

“Last year we sent 200,000 square miles of big ice to the South Pole…for centuries we have been sending this ice south…Why do we do this? - to save your world from destruction!”

investigation:

From Yahoo Answers... Can ice reduce global warming? “Clearly if there was enough of it, covering enough of the earth, it would reflect enough sunlight away that the world would not warm, but that's not the case at the moment. In today's environment, with all the ice in Greenland, the arctic ocean, Antarctica, high mountain glaciers, etc, the world is still warming, so it would seem not. If you were thinking about making ice, that would be far worse, when you do that, the process generates more heat than can be offset by the ice you make”. There are other similar assessments.

conclusion:

Unfulfilled prediction  and a very unlikely future solution.

prediction:

Cars travelling at 1000mph using rays 

page 90

quote:

“All our cars are good. The average speed is 1000mph…and it is the ice rays alone that form the motive power”

investigation:

Several earlier related predictions and existing technology have been identified…

From The Earth to the Moon  by Jules Verne in 1867 5 : “All the stars exceed it in rapidity, and the earth herself is at this moment carrying us round the sun at three times as rapid a rate, and yet she is a mere lounger on the way compared with many others of the planets! And her velocity is constantly decreasing. Is it not evident, then, I ask you, that there will some day appear velocities far greater than these, of which light or electricity will probably be the mechanical agent?”

The first electric car was built in 1884 by British inventor Thomas Parker in 1884.

A letter from Mr. Edison in the New York Times of 12 Aug 1902: "I believe that within thirty years nearly all railways will discard steam locomotives and adopt electric motors, and that the electric automobile will displace the horse almost entirely”.

conclusion:

Similar earlier predictions and existing technology existed 

prediction:

Radium combined with ice for huge energy generation

page 92

quote:

“If their combined power could be utilised the new force would be stupendous...your deadliest explosives are amalgamation of innocent materials, which separately are destitute of fiery or combustive nature”. 

investigation:

Radium and uranium are similar heavy radioactive elements and were originally were discovered and identified in 1896 as one element named “pitchblende” before Madam Curie separated them in 1898. Conversely, Deuterium, has similarities to tritium, both are produced from water and ice and are two of the lightest elements. A hydrogen bomb is the product of merging these heavy and light elements in one instantaneous nuclear event releasing huge amounts of energy in an explosion. The first hydrogen bomb was exploded in 1952. No similar earlier prediction has been identified.

conclusion:

A very successful prediction

prediction:

Messages Conveyed from one mind to another with a “receiver”

page 103

quote:

“… I could see she had made communication…but you have no instrument, at least none that I could see…we do not need instruments to convey messages from one mind to another…the secret was in the receiver”.

investigation:

The term “telepathy” was introduced by Fredric W. H. Myers in 1882, who was founder of the Society for Psychical Research and it replace the earlier expression “thought-transference”. It has been a common theme in science fiction ever since. The concept must therefore be classed as having earlier similar predictions although no reference to a “receiver” or enabling machine has been found other than a recent quote…. “Some believe that technologically enabled telepathy will be inevitable. Professor Warwick10 of the University of Reading, England is one of the leading proponents of this view and has based all of his recent cybernetics research around developing practical, safe technology for directly connecting human nervous systems together with computers and with each other. He believes techno-enabled telepathy will in the future become the primary form of human communication”. The internet will inevitably play a key role in this.

conclusion:

A “receiver” as a telepathy enabler is a viable unfulfilled prediction, but getting very close11!

prediction:

Dialled variable light level at any time

page 118

quote:

the dial could be so manipulated so that the darkness could be obtained at any time desired…darkness would come about so gradually that the difference between each shade would scarcely be discerned”.

investigation:

Electric lighting was in general use by 1910, but varying the intensity with a dial was not been available at that time, nor would there have been a mechanism to link the switching to a clock, or make gradual transitions.  The development of electronics from the 1940s onwards made this feature a reality. No similar earlier predictions have been identified.

conclusion:

A successful prediction

 

Of the 10 scientific predictions identified…

4 appear to have been successful predictions

3 could have been based on  earlier similar predictions  or  existing technologies  at the time

3 remain unfulfilled  -  with one becoming increasingly viable and two extremely unlikely to be fulfilled

none of the ten were too ambiguous or vague  to make an reasonable assessment

 

This represents around a 50% success rate, which for the nature of these predictions is impressive and is probably on a par with many of the well know Sci-Fi authors from the past.

 

References

1    Trillion year spree: the history of science fiction    Brian W  Aldiss, David Wingrove 1986

2    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_fiction_authors

3    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_science_fiction

4    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_science_fiction_authors

5       www.trivia-library.com/b/science-fiction-predictions-jules-verne.htm

6    www.trivia-library.com/b/science-fiction-predictions-h-g-wells.htm

7    http://www.technovelgy.com   Timeline of Science Fiction Ideas and Inventions

8    http://www.dimension1111.com/nostradamus-prophecies.html

9       www.lenntech.com/greenhouse-effect/global-warming-history.htm

10    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Warwick

11    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyborg

 

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